Variables Explaining the Modal Shift in Public Transport Use Due to COVID-19 in an Urban Environment in Queretaro

The COVID-19 pandemic has significantly impacted the way we move around due to the constant risk of contracting the virus and the social-distancing measures and restrictions implemented by the authorities. These have produced changes in modal travel behaviors because of the perception of COVID-19. Therefore, the objective of this study was to identify the significant variables that explain the relationship of COVID-related socio-demographic, commuting, and integral perception variables with the modal shift in urban mobility of public transport users. To this end, we considered the socio-demographic, commuting, and integral perception characteristics of users to estimate a binary logistic regression model based on data from 365 valid questionnaires applied in the Benito Juarez Industrial Park (PIBJ, in Spanish), located in the Santiago de Queretaro urban zone, Mexico. The results show that occupation, commuting time, awareness about the consequences of becoming infected, the possibility of becoming infected while using/not using public transport, and whether using public transport is considered risky are variables significantly related to the modal shift in public transport users during the COVID-19 pandemic. © 2022 Instituto de Geografia. All rights reserved.

Health Impacts of COVID-19 through the Changes in Mobility

Understanding the wider effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on public health is needed to respond sufficiently to the impacts and facilitate recovery. We studied the secondary health impacts of COVID-19 through the changes in transportation using a ripple effect mode. Three ripples are defined to reflect the impacts of COVID-19 on (1) transportation and the systems behind it, (2) transportation-related health risk factors, and (3) public health. COVID-19 impacts on transportation are synthesized through six areas: transportation demand, transportation mode, traffic safety, land use and built environment, transportation jobs, and transportation equity. These changes are further associated with decreased transportation-related air pollution, greenhouse gases, noise, heat, and stress. Higher rates of road casualties were observed in the area of COVID-19. Social exclusion and limitations in accessibility to healthcare and healthy food were identified as negative consequences of changes in transportation. There are uncertainties in the rate of active transportation (i.e., walking and cycling) and related crashes that require further investigation. The findings of this study uncover the complex and relatively unknown impacts of COVID-19 on public health through changes in transportation. © 2023 by the authors.

Risk perceptions of COVID-19 transmission in different travel modes.

COVID-19 pandemic has caused adverse impacts on different aspects of life around the globe, including travelers' mode choice behavior. To make their travel safe, transportation planners and policymakers need to understand people's perceptions of the risk of COVID-19 transmission in different travel modes. This study aimed to estimate mode-wise perceived risk of viral transmission and identify the factors that influenced the perceived risk in Bangladesh. The study used a five-point Likert scale to measure the perceived risk of COVID-19 transmission in each travel mode. Using ordinal logistic regression models, the study explored the factors that influenced the perceived risk of COVID-19 transmission in different travel modes. The study found that people perceived a very high risk of viral transmission in public transport (bus), moderate risk in shared modes (rickshaw, auto-rickshaw, ridesharing), and very low risk in private modes (private car, motorcycle/scooter, walking, cycling). Such high-risk perception of viral transmission in public transport and shared modes might lead to a modal shift to private modes, which would worsen urban transport problems and undermine sustainable transportation goals. The study also found that socio-economic factors (gender, age, income) significantly influenced perceived risks in all travel modes. Contrarily, psychological factors (worry, care, and trust) were significant only for public and shared modes, but not for private modes. Lastly, travel behavior-related factors influenced perceived risk in shared and private modes.

Cycling in an ‘ordinary city': A practice theory approach to supporting a modal shift

There has long been evidence of the benefit of a modal shift toward cycling can bring to meeting several pressing urban challenges including ill-health, climate change, and poor air quality. In the wake of COVID-19, policy-makers have identified a modal shift toward cycling as part of the solution to mobility challenges introduced by social distancing measures. However, beyond exemplar areas, cycling has been largely characterized by a stubbornly-low modal share. In this paper, we use the ‘ordinary city'–in cycling terms–of Liverpool as a case study to understand this. We apply practice theory in doing so, finding the provision of materials for cycling is the key factor in supporting a modal shift. Not only do they provide the means to support the practice of cycling in the city, but they also have a key role in shaping individuals perceptions of, and the skills required to cycle. We then reflect upon the utility of practice theory in understanding the patterns of everyday life, finding it was particularly well suited in understanding the interactions between different factors which influence modal choice. We go on to identify practical challenges in its application within our analysis raising questions around an inconsistent analysis of influential factors including ‘driver behavior' and ‘political commitment'. We suggest how this might be overcome, through the isolation of such factors within a category of ‘action of others', this we argue means the findings in this paper have broad relevance to researchers and policy-makers alike. © 2021 The Author(s). Published with license by Taylor and Francis Group, LLC.

The potential of changing habitual car user travel modes: The case of Czech towns

With the constant and ever-growing pressure from governing bodies for increased sustainability of transportation systems, the need for changes in the travel behaviours of the inhabitants of suburban and urban areas seems inevitable. Thus a shift from cars to vehicles with higher occupancy rates or other more environmental friendly travel modes needs to be a priority. This requires understanding the reasons why people choose cars as their preferred mode of travel for commutes in order to make informed decisions about how to encourage changes in commuter travel behaviors. This paper presents a case study of four medium-sized Czech towns, including a survey concerning pre- and post-COVID-19 travel habits focused on identifying and understanding the willingness of car-dependent commuters to change their mode of travel choice. This three-stage survey revealed a small, COVID pandemia -based effect on the habits of respondents and helped to identify sensitivities survey participants had to particular travel parameters and characteristics that might be used by municipalities to implement informed policies that could lead to changes in travel behaviours. © 2022 Tongji University and Tongji University Press

The future container throughput for inland shipping on the traditional Rhine: a SARIMAX approach

Inland container shipping is confronted with significant challenges, both on the demand and supply side. In line with the 2019 Green Deal’s ambitious goals and 2020 Sustainable and Smart Mobility Strategy, the European Commission presented an ‘Inland Waterway Transport Action plan 2021-2027’ with the target of shifting more freight across inland waterways. However, the COVID-19 pandemic together with the low water level raise interest in how these could impact the throughput for container transport on the inland waterways. In this research, the scope is on the container throughput for inland container transport on the traditional Rhine. This study first identifies the market drivers for containerized inland navigation in the medium run and then selects the SARIMAX method to analyse Inland Waterway Transport (IWT) volumes. The model application shows that the throughput for inland container transport on the traditional Rhine is impacted on by periods of low water and the weakening of the economy caused by COVID-19. The results of the study suggest that if the IWT container market is impacted by the identified factors, the throughput for containerized IWT is expected to decline by 8.9% in 2023 relative to the volumes in 2020. The research might act as a decision support tool for analysis, management and planning for policymakers and stakeholders. © 2022 Van Meir N., Rashed Y., Storms K., Sys C., Vanelslander T. & van Hassel E.

Characterising public transport shifting to active and private modes in South American capitals during the COVID-19 pandemic.

During the year 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic affected mobility around the world, significantly reducing the number of trips by public transport. In this paper, we study its impact in five South American capitals (i.e., Bogotá, Buenos Aires, Lima, Quito and Santiago). A decline in public transport patronage could be very bad news for these cities in the long term, particularly if users change to less sustainable modes, such as cars or motorbikes. Notwithstanding, it could be even beneficial if users selected more sustainable modes, such as active transport (e.g., bicycles and walking). To better understand this phenomenon in the short term, we conducted surveys in these five cities looking for the main explanation for changes from public transport to active and private modes in terms of user perceptions, activity patterns and sociodemographic information. To forecast people's mode shifts in each city, we integrated both objective and subjective information collected in this study using a SEM-MIMIC model. We found five latent variables (i.e., COVID-19 impact, Entities response, Health risk, Life related activities comfort and Subjective well-being), two COVID-19 related attributes (i.e., new cases and deaths), two trip attributes (i.e., cost savings and time), and six socio-demographic attributes (i.e., age, civil status, household characteristics, income level, occupation and gender) influencing the shift from public transport to other modes. Furthermore, both the number of cases and the number of deaths caused by COVID-19 increased the probability of moving from public transport to other modes but, in general, we found a smaller probability of moving to active modes than to private modes. The paper proposes a novel way for understanding geographical and contextual similarities in the pandemic scenario for these metropolises from a transportation perspective.

A modal shift due to a free within-destination tourist bus scheme: Multimodality and transport equity implications

The idea of the modal shift has been central to transport policymaking in the past few decades. Fare-free public transport (FFPT) schemes are among the potential policy instruments that are expected to promote modal shifts. After the peak of the COVID-19 outbreak, FFPT schemes have been implemented in large tourist destination areas in China to attract visitors. However, although FFPT has been practiced across the globe, its effect on travel modal shifts and transport equity is still under scrutiny. This paper, therefore, employs the notion of multimodality and indices for perceived accessibility and equity to investigate whether an FFPT scheme in tourist destination areas encourages a modal shift and promotes transport equity. A two-wave survey was conducted before and after the restoration of within-destination tourist bus tickets in the Mount Yandang Scenic Area, a famous tourist attraction in the Yangtze River delta. Propensity score matching (PSM) was then employed to analyse the treatment effect of the FFPT scheme. Our results indicate that, although the FFPT scheme significantly increased tourists' multimodality, the modal share of within-destination tourist buses was not significantly changed. More surprisingly, we found a modal shift from car-based services such as taxis to informal transportation provided by B&B operators and local residents. Moreover, it is notable that informal transport modes significantly influenced tourists' perceived accessibility and transport equity. Therefore, the tourism industry should encourage the integration of within-destination buses and informal transport modes to encourage multimodal travel, which is more sustainable ecologically and socially.

Will the Effects of COVID-19 on Commuting and Daily Activities of the University Students Be Maintained? Evidence from a Small Town in Sicily

As many studies have already shown, the COVID-19 pandemic has had a great impact on the daily routines of people all over the world. University students form one of the most affected groups of people, since they have had to interrupt many of the activities that they usually perform, and have also had to get used to a new way of learning (e-learning). An important question that now arises is whether the changes that were identified within the pandemic period are to be maintained when the risk of being infected is eliminated. To this end, 537 university students of the Kore University of Enna, Italy, were surveyed. Their responses are analyzed descriptively, and an ordinal regression model is being developed to shed more light on the likelihood of retaining changes related with to transport mode choice. The results show that the likelihood of retaining all the changes when commuting and during daily activities is very high, demonstrating such willingness from the participants. Moreover, it has been shown that public transport has increased the probability of people being negatively affected by the pandemic in the long-term, and opportunities appear for increasing the modal share of active modes.

The role of bike sharing during the coronavirus pandemic: An analysis of the mobility patterns and perceptions of Lisbon's GIRA users.

COVID-19 has dramatically impacted urban mobility, of which public transport (PT) has been particularly affected. With PT ridership plummeting due to infection fears and many people returning to work, there is a danger of a steep rise in car use that would exacerbate environmental and health problems. Therefore, other modes such as bike sharing should be considered as potential alternatives during the coronavirus pandemic. This study focuses on assessing how coronavirus has impacted bike sharing by implementing a travel behaviour survey to the users of GIRA, the bike sharing system (BSS) of Lisbon. While the coronavirus has led some to decrease the frequency of use or quit the system, other users have increased the usage or joined GIRA during the pandemic. Furthermore, most users who have quit or decreased the usage of GIRA justify their decision not so much on avoiding the risk of infection (although for some it is an important reason) but on having stopped commuting due to COVID-19. The survey has also revealed substantial changes not only on the usage patterns of GIRA users but also on their relationship with other modes of transport. While before the pandemic, most respondents were shifting from PT to GIRA, that percentage has declined, with an increase on the share of users replacing walking, private car, and personal cycling. Moreover, the motivations for using bike sharing related with avoiding PT and maintaining a social distance during the trip have gained more relevance. Concurrently, the perceived safety of using PT has drastically declined, and while the perceived safety of using GIRA has also decreased it was in a much smaller scale. Policy insights can be derived from this research on how bike sharing can contribute to a more sustainable and resilient urban transport system. During infectious public health crises such as COVID-19, BSS can be a viable transport alternative, not only providing the population with an affordable mode of transport where social distancing can be maintained in most of the trip but also mitigating a modal shift from PT to the private car.

Will modal shift occur from subway to other modes of transportation in the post-corona world in developing countries?

Developing countries are more fragile in the face of the crippling Covid-19 pandemic. Transportation is one of the major industries that has been hardly hit worldwide, and it is more worrying for these countries that already have challenges such as high modal share of private cars, air pollution, and high fatalities due to car accidents. This paper is one of its first kinds that studies the impact of this pandemic on the transportation of Tehran, the capital of Iran, which is one of the forefronts of the battle. In the first step and to get better insights from the travel behavior of passengers due to the pandemic, an online questionnaire is developed and distributed. Priorities for mode choice before and during the pandemic decrease and increase in the share of different modes and the impact of having a high-risk person in the family is studied. Subway had the most decrease and private cars had the highest increase. Hence, two logit models are developed to explain the variables that affect shifting away from the subway and shifting to private cars. Based on the results, a follow-up survey some months later and ridership trends of public transportation during the pandemic, four scenarios are envisaged for the post-corona world, the most probable one is highlighted and policies are recommended to better manage the situation.

Exploring the impacts of COVID-19 on travel behavior and mode preferences.

Various measures were recommended or imposed by the governments to control the spread of COVID-19. Travel behaviors are significantly influenced due to such measures. However, people have various travel needs ranging from grocery shopping to work. This study examines the changes that occurred in travel behavior due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Data were collected through an online questionnaire survey that included questions on trip purpose, mode choice, distance traveled, and frequency of trips before and during COVID-19. 1203 responses were collected from various countries around the world. Results explained that trip purpose, mode choice, distance traveled, and frequency of trips for the primary travel were significantly different before and during the pandemic. Further, the majority of trips were made for shopping during the pandemic. There was a significant shift from public transport to private transport and non-motorized modes. People placed a higher priority on the pandemic related concerns while choosing a mode during the pandemic as compared to the general concerns. Gender, car ownership, employment status, travel distance, the primary purpose of traveling, and pandemic-related underlying factors during COVID-19 were found to be significant predictors of mode choice during the pandemic. Outcomes of this study could be useful in transport planning and policymaking during pandemics based on the travel needs of people. In particular, government authorities could utilize such knowledge for planning smart and partial lockdowns. Service providers, e.g., taxi companies and retailers, could use such information to better plan their services and operations.